(7/22 and 7/29 projection: 54 Democrats, 46 Republicans, or Republican gain of +5)
(7/14 projection: 55 Democrats, 45 Republicans, or Republican gain of +4)

Since our last analysis, we now have poll results for West Virginia. We are also changing the classification of two Senate races. In Missouri, Obama’s abysmal ratings have made it more difficult for the Democrat to capture this open Republican seat, and the Republican candidate has increased his poll lead from 47-45% to 48-42%. In California, a tossup Senate race has moved to “lean Democratic”, since the last three polls taken both show three term incumbent Boxer leading by more than 5%.

http://thehayride.com/2010/07/2010-elections-729-version/

Battle for Congress
and Governor – House Races

(7/29 projection:

256 Republicans and 179 Democrats, or Republican gain of +77

– 18 Democrats on the “watch list”)

The Senate prediction is a reasonable one. I would not be shocked to see the Democrats with 55 seats.

The house prediction is absurd. I cannot see the Republicans gaining 77. According to this link http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/2010_elections_house_map.html that would mean that the Republicans would have to pick up all their safe districts, all their likely districts, all of their lean Republican districts, all the toss up districts, and all but 5 of the currently held Democrat districts listed in “lean Democrat” while holding on to their two Republican districts that lean Democrat and losing LA02.

http://www.electionprojection.com/2010elections/house10.php lists the Democrats losing 30 seats (though I am not too familiar with that site, so take it with a grain of salt)

Personally, with all the extremist conservative candidates running, I do not see the Democrats losing either house. But even if the GOP does win back the house, it won’t be by taking 77 seats.

We shall see, but I think JMC may be correct.

roux - 29 July 2010 03:00 PM

We shall see, but I think JMC may be correct.

JMC has proven about as accurate as they come.  If he says 77, that’s where my money is.